Charting Last Week (12/24 - 12/28/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.40% percentage points to 2.82%. The Daily Coincident Index remained at 2.11%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

U.S. equities declined four days in a row this week. Bonds rallied during the week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/17 - 12/21/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.92% percentage points to 2.42%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 2.11%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were up for the week. Small cap stocks (IWM) led the way with a 3.11% gain for the week Bonds were down for the week. On the charts below, a red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/10 - 12/14/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.06% percentage points to 1.49%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 1.79%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

U.S. equities were flat for the week, while international equities rose for the fourth week in a row. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/3 - 12/7/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 1.49% percentage points to 1.56%, the lowest reading since October 2011. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 1.46%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities rose for the third week in a row, led by a 2.39% increase in Emerging Markets (EEM). The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 15.8% year to date. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

ISM Report on Business - 12/5/12

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Report on Business for November 2012 was released today. NMI, the composite index for Non-Manufacturing, came in at 54.65%, an increase of 0.5% percentage points from October. PMI, the composite index for Manufacturing, was released on Monday and was at 49.5%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from October. This is the lowest reading for PMI since July 2009. A reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting. A reading below 42.6% for PMI indicates that the overall economy is declining. I have averaged the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing components to create a composite reading.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The INDICATOR category contains all 10 areas surveyed as well as the PMI and NMI composites. The choices in the MA/NMA category allow you to view the Manufacturing report (MA), the Non-manufacturing report (NMA), and a composite of the two. The DATES category allows you to view specific periods of time.
 

Here is what some of the respondents to the surveys are saying:

Manufacturing

•  "Conditions still appear to be positive for continued growth in sales." (Machinery) 
• "Business is steady, but not much more than that. We are in a lull." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) 
• "The principle business conditions that will affect the company over the next three or four quarters will be the U.S. federal government tax and budgetary policies; the impact of those policies is not yet clear." (Petroleum & Coal Products) 
• "Differences between first half of year and remaining half are very dramatic, growing to a peak in the middle of the year with a gradual decline since." (Plastics & Rubber Products) 
• "Seeing a slowdown in request for quote activity." (Computer & Electronic Products) 
• "The fiscal cliff is the big worry right now. We will not look toward any type of expansion until this is addressed; if the program that is put in place is more taxes and big spending cuts — which will push us toward recession — forget it." (Fabricated Metal Products) 
• "Seeing a slowdown in demand across markets." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components) 
• "Economy is very sluggish. Production is down and orders have slowed considerably from Q1." (Transportation Equipment) 
• "East Coast storms delayed some shipments." (Primary Metals) 
• "Global economic uncertainty still seems to be sticking around which is not necessarily making things worse, but it is also not making things better from a demand standpoint." (Chemical Products) 

Non-Manufacturing

•  "Cautiously optimistic is the best way to describe customer sentiment. Revenue continues to remain well below last year, but seems to have finally reached a point of stability. Price pressures are beginning to ease and customer traffic is once again picking up." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation) 
• "We have experienced an estimated 25 percent [increase] in new job orders, and in new hires for services." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services) 
• "Some companies seemed slower to make hiring decisions and/or place new positions on hold due to uncertainty in the economy and political climate." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
•  "Worries about global slowdown persist; however, the housing market appears to have hit its lows and is beginning to climb. This is good news for governmental tax base projections." (Public Administration) 
• "Hurricane Sandy has impacted our business activity tremendously. This emergency should not be misconstrued as a positive increase in business as usual; we merely facilitated emergency equipment and supplies to be delivered to the affected areas and the emergency responders." (Wholesale Trade)
•  "Sales continue to lag, but there are signs of improvement." (Retail Trade)

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/26 - 11/30/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.10% percentage points to 3.31%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 1.52%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities rallied for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 (SPY) is now up 20.95% year over year. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index 11/27/12

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for September 2012 was released today. The 20-City Composite is up 2.96% compared to September 2011 (seasonally adjusted) and is up 0.39% compared to the previous month. 19 of the 20 cities in the Composite-20 were up in September compared to the previous month. 18 of the 20 cities are now up year over year.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The CITY category contains all 20 markets as well as the Composite-10 and Composite-20 index. The choices in the TYPE category are All, Condos, and High, Low and Middle Tiers. The prices of homes in each city are divided into three tiers. Each city has different breakpoints. For example, for the latest release in Las Vegas the Low tier is homes under $125,667 and the High tier is over $191,782. In San Francisco the Low tier is under $354,678 and the high tier is over $641,441. The SA/NSA category allows you to view Seasonally Adjusted data (SA) and/or Non-Seasonally Adjusted data (NSA). If you left click on a category, the chart will update with only data for that item in that category. If you hold the CONTROL button down while left clicking, it will toggle that item on and off while leaving the other items in that category the same allowing you to add or subtract items. If you hold the SHIFT key down while left clicking, it will add all items in between where you clicked and the item you last clicked. You can clear all selections in a category by clicking the Filter Icon on the top right of each category (looks like a funnel with a X). You can also refresh the page to bring it back to its original state.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/19 - 11/23/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 1.16% percentage points to 3.42%. The Daily Coincident Index remained at 1.80%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities rallied sharply this week after being in the oversold territory. The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 4.16% in the last 5 trading days, the largest such gain this year. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/12 - 11/16/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.29% percentage points to 4.58%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 1.80%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were down for the week. However the stock market recovered slightly on Friday after being in the oversold territory. Bonds were up for the week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/5 - 11/9/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.10% percentage points to 4.84%. The Daily Coincident Index remained at 2.09%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were down sharply for the week. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 2.27% on Wednesday. This is only the third time this year that the index fell by more than 2% in one day. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

ISM Report on Business - 11/5/12

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Report on Business for October 2012 was released today. NMI, the composite index for Non-Manufacturing, came in at 54.15%, a decrease of 0.9% percentage points from September. PMI, the composite index for Manufacturing, was released on Thursday and was at 51.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from September. A reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting. A reading below 42.6% for PMI indicates that the overall economy is declining. I have averaged the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing components to create a composite reading.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The INDICATOR category contains all 10 areas surveyed as well as the PMI and NMI composites. The choices in the MA/NMA category allow you to view the Manufacturing report (MA), the Non-manufacturing report (NMA), and a composite of the two. The DATES category allows you to view specific periods of time.
 

Here is what some of the Respondents to the surveys are saying:

Manufacturing

• "Market is still very soft." (Paper Products)
• "Business is picking up." (Furniture & Related Products) 
• "[Our] 4th quarters usually begin to show a slowdown in demand, and this year is no different; prices are also dropping." (Wood Products)
• "Demand down slightly due to customers pre-buying ahead of announced material price increases." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
 • "The slowing of capital expenditure in Europe and China has lowered our backlog for Q4." (Computer & Electronic Products)
• "We see a general softening in the steel and automotive markets in the fourth quarter." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "Cuts in healthcare reimbursement rates continue to negatively affect top-line revenue." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
• "Business conditions stable to slightly improving." (Transportation Equipment)
• "Sales and order intake have slowed." (Primary Metals)
• "Europe is still very much a concern. Global recovery is still fragile." (Chemical Products)

Non-Manufacturing

• "Business with markets and customers we serve remains strong." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
• "Business is steady, with good fourth quarter expected." (Information)
• "The sluggish pace of economic recovery coupled with rapid increases in gas prices on the West Coast continue to drag down customer traffic and discretionary spending. Levels remain well below last year." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
• "Ongoing concerns about healthcare reform; reluctance to expand or hire." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
• "Outlook is positive yet still guarded. Clients have some pent-up demand that they are acting on with short-term contracts." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
• "More companies seeking relief from fuel increases." (Public Administration)

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/29 - 11/02/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.36% percentage points to 4.94%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 2.09%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were mostly up for the week. The Monday and Tuesday closure of the NYSE was the first consecutive weather related closures since 1888. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index 10/30/12

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August 2012 was released today. The 20-City Composite is up 1.98% compared to August 2011 (seasonally adjusted) and is up 0.49% compared to the previous month. 19 of the 20 cities in the Composite-20 were up in August compared to the previous month. 17 of the 20 cities are now up year over year.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The CITY category contains all 20 markets as well as the Composite-10 and Composite-20 index. The choices in the TYPE category are All, Condos, and High, Low and Middle Tiers. The prices of homes in each city are divided into three tiers. Each city has different breakpoints. For example, for the latest release in Las Vegas the Low tier is homes under $121,176 and the High tier is over $186,519. In San Francisco the Low tier is under $348,216 and the high tier is over $631,624. The SA/NSA category allows you to view Seasonally Adjusted data (SA) and/or Non-Seasonally Adjusted data (NSA). If you left click on a category, the chart will update with only data for that item in that category. If you hold the CONTROL button down while left clicking, it will toggle that item on and off while leaving the other items in that category the same allowing you to add or subtract items. If you hold the SHIFT key down while left clicking, it will add all items in between where you clicked and the item you last clicked. You can clear all selections in a category by clicking the Filter Icon on the top right of each category (looks like a funnel with a X). You can also refresh the page to bring it back to its original state.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/22 - 10/26/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 1.10% percentage points to 5.30%. The gain was led by a rebound in Durable Goods New Orders after a large decline last month. The Daily Coincident Index remained at 2.35%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were down for the week, while bonds rallied. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.