Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7/31/12

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May 2012 was released today. The 20-City Composite is down 0.67% compared to May 2011 (seasonally adjusted) and is up 0.91% compared to the previous month. 18 of the 20 cities in the Composite-20 were up in May compared to the previous month. There is a good chance that next month, the Composite-20 will show a year over year gain.

Throughout this housing cycle, housing prices in every area were highly correlated. However, each area has also reacted to events differently. In 1990 Los Angeles house prices fell more than other parts of the nation partly due to a plunge in aerospace-related employment. During the tech crash in the early 2000s, San Francisco home prices took a hit, whereas the rest of the nation wasn't really affected. Detroit has been hit hard with the housing crisis and the problems with the Big Three automobile manufacturers.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The CITY category contains all 20 markets as well as the Composite-10 and Composite-20 index. The choices in the TYPE category are All, Condos, and High, Low and Middle Tiers. The prices of homes in each city are divided into three tiers. Each city has different breakpoints. For example, for the latest release in Las Vegas the Low tier is homes under $113,574 and the High tier is over $175,507. In San Francisco the Low tier is under $328,591 and the high tier is over $593,442. The SA/NSA category allows you to view Seasonally Adjusted data (SA) and/or Non-Seasonally Adjusted data (NSA). If you left click on a category, the chart will update with only data for that item in that category. If you hold the CONTROL button down while left clicking, it will toggle that item on and off while leaving the other items in that category the same allowing you to add or subtract items. If you hold the SHIFT key down while left clicking, it will add all items in between where you clicked and the item you last clicked. You can clear all selections in a category by clicking the Filter Icon on the top right of each category (looks like a funnel with a X). You can also refresh the page to bring it back to its original state.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (7/23 - 7/27/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by .28% to 5.25%. After dropping last week, the index rose back to into the tight range it had been in since mid June. The Daily Coincident Index stayed at 2.98%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities started the week off weak. The international indices dropped over 3% in the first two days. They finished the week by rallying over 5% after comments by Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, aimed at restoring investor confidence. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (7/16 - 7/20/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.41% to 4.97% after being in a tight range for the last four weeks. The Daily Coincident Index declined by 0.09% to 2.98%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were mixed last week while bonds rallied. The long term Treasuries are up by over 40% year over year. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (7/9 - 7/13/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.20% to 5.38%. The index has fluctuated in a tight range for the last four weeks. The Daily Coincident Index was flat at 3.06%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were mostly down for the week while bonds rallied. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (7/2 - 7/6/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.02% to 5.55% and has now risen slightly for three weeks in a row after falling for 3 weeks in row. The Daily Coincident Index was flat at 3.14%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities retreated from the overbought position while bonds rallied. I have added TLT, a long treasury bond index, and WTI, the Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil index, to the charts. TLT is up an impressive 39% year over year. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

ISM Report on Business - 7/5/12

The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was reported today and was at 52.08, down 1.65% from the previous month. Manufacturing's PMI, which was released on Monday, fell below 50 for the first time since August 2009. A reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting but that the economy is still growing. Only 3 of the 10 categories in Manufacturing are above 50. 7 of the 10 categories in Non-Manufacturing are above 50. I have averaged the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing components to create a composite reading. 5 of the 10 categories in the composite are above 50.

Below is an interactive graph.  You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display.  The INDICATOR category contains all 10 areas surveyed as well as the PMI and NMI composites.  The choices in the MA/NMA category allow you to view the Manufacturing report (MA), the Non-manufacturing report (NMA), and a composite of the two.  The DATES category allows you to view specific periods of time.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (6/25 - 6/29/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.05% to 5.55% and has now risen slightly for two weeks in a row after falling for 3 weeks in row. However, it is still down 2.06% month over month. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.14%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities rallied sharply on Friday posting their biggest gains of the year. Most indices are back in the overbought territory. International Emerging Markets led the way with a 2.55% gain for the week (up 4.43% on Friday). The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.