Case-Shiller Home Price Index 8/28/12

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for June 2012 was released today. The 20-City Composite is up 0.46% compared to June 2011 (seasonally adjusted) and is up 0.94% compared to the previous month. 18 of the 20 cities in the Composite-20 were up in June compared to the previous month. 13 of the 20 cities are now up year over year.

June has historically been the strongest month when looking at the Non-Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) month over month gains for the Composite-20. October through February are the weakest months with average returns that are negative. During the recovery from the housing crisis, it seems as if the NSA patterns were not fully accounted for in the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) numbers. In the last 3 years, the SA August through February returns were negative on average, while March through July have been positive. It will be interesting to see what happens this winter with the housing index.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The CITY category contains all 20 markets as well as the Composite-10 and Composite-20 index. The choices in the TYPE category are All, Condos, and High, Low and Middle Tiers. The prices of homes in each city are divided into three tiers. Each city has different breakpoints. For example, for the latest release in Las Vegas the Low tier is homes under $116,094 and the High tier is over $179,537. In San Francisco the Low tier is under $338,227 and the high tier is over $614,301. The SA/NSA category allows you to view Seasonally Adjusted data (SA) and/or Non-Seasonally Adjusted data (NSA). If you left click on a category, the chart will update with only data for that item in that category. If you hold the CONTROL button down while left clicking, it will toggle that item on and off while leaving the other items in that category the same allowing you to add or subtract items. If you hold the SHIFT key down while left clicking, it will add all items in between where you clicked and the item you last clicked. You can clear all selections in a category by clicking the Filter Icon on the top right of each category (looks like a funnel with a X). You can also refresh the page to bring it back to its original state.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/20 - 8/24/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by .16% to 5.86%. The index is at the top of the narrow range it has been in for the last ten weeks. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.64%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were down for the week while bonds were up. SPY (S&P 500) fell by 0.47% after reaching an all time high last week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/13 - 8/17/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by .54% to 5.70%. The index is near the top of the narrow range it has been in for the last nine weeks. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.64%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were up for the week while bonds were down. SPY (S&P 500) is now at an all time high, passing the 2007 high point this week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/6 - 8/10/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by .08% to 5.15%. The index has stayed in a narrow range for eight weeks now. The Daily Coincident Index was flat at 3.54%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were up for the week while bonds were down. The equity indices are near the overbought territory, while the bond indices are near the oversold territory. SPY (S&P 500) is now within 1% of its all time high. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (7/30 - 8/3/12)

The Daily Leading Index declined by 0.13% to 5.12%. The Daily Coincident Index rose by 0.56% to 3.54%, which is a 15 month high. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities ended the week with a strong rally on Friday just like they did last Friday. 3 of the 4 equity indices show below are at or close to being in the overbought territory. SPY (S&P 500) is now within 2% of its all time high. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

ISM Report on Business - 8/3/12

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Report on Business for July 2012 was released today. NMI, the composite index for Non-Manufacturing, came in at 52.6% up .5% from June. PMI, the composite index for Manufacturing, was released on Wednesday and was at 49.8% and was up .1% from June. A reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting. A reading below 42.6% for PMI indicates that the overall economy is declining. I have averaged the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing components to create a composite reading.

PMI and NMI were led by gains in Production. However, the gains came at the expense of paring down the Backlog of Orders which isn't sustainable long term.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The INDICATOR category contains all 10 areas surveyed as well as the PMI and NMI composites. The choices in the MA/NMA category allow you to view the Manufacturing report (MA), the Non-manufacturing report (NMA), and a composite of the two. The DATES category allows you to view specific periods of time.



Here is what some of the Respondents to the surveys are saying:

Manufacturing 

• "Business has been up for the last seven consecutive months — strong customer orders coming in." (Machinery) 
•  "Automotive demand remains strong." (Fabricated Metal Products) 
• "Resin pricing has bottomed out so customer orders have increased; it was pent-up demand." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
• "We have noticed a marked slowing in business overall. [We] have confirmed this with other companies in our industry as well." (Wood Products)
• "Forecasts remain high, but actual bookings remain flat." (Computer & Electronic Products)
• "Taking a conservative approach to spending including hiring, travel and inventory. U.S. economy seems stuck — at best — with little to no growth." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
• "Business remains surprisingly strong." (Primary Metals)
• "Continued slowdown in government military sector spending in advance of the presidential elections has seriously impacted business performance." (Transportation Equipment)
• "Business is softening, requiring some down production days." (Furniture & Related Products)
• "General state of business this month is flat, with increasing economic uncertainty." (Chemical Products)

Non-Manufacturing

• "The general economy and unemployment are keeping our business flat." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
• "Beginning to see effects of slowing economy. New orders are down versus same time last year." (Information)
• "Business is slowing; input costs are weakening." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
• "Seeing a slight uptick in sales revenue." (Public Administration)
• Things have not changed too much this past month; however, we are seeing more aggressive marketing/sales efforts by suppliers hungry for business." (Transportation & Warehousing)
• "Overall, we are still seeing growth over last year, but the sequential growth has gone flat to negative." (Wholesale Trade)

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.