Charting Last Week (9/24 - 9/28/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 2.92% to 2.88%. The decline was largely the result of a 13.2% decline in Durable Goods New Orders compared to the previous month. There was a 101.8% decline in new orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Without transportation, new orders were down 1.6%. The Daily Coincident Index declined to 2.30%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were down slightly for the week after being in the overbought territory two weeks ago. Bonds rallied during the week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9/25/12

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July 2012 was released today. The 20-City Composite is up 1.14% compared to July 2011 (seasonally adjusted) and is up 0.44% compared to the previous month. 18 of the 20 cities in the Composite-20 were up in July compared to the previous month. 16 of the 20 cities are now up year over year.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The CITY category contains all 20 markets as well as the Composite-10 and Composite-20 index. The choices in the TYPE category are All, Condos, and High, Low and Middle Tiers. The prices of homes in each city are divided into three tiers. Each city has different breakpoints. For example, for the latest release in Las Vegas the Low tier is homes under $118,154 and the High tier is over $182,284. In San Francisco the Low tier is under $344,682 and the high tier is over $626,820. The SA/NSA category allows you to view Seasonally Adjusted data (SA) and/or Non-Seasonally Adjusted data (NSA).

If you left click on a category, the chart will update with only data for that item in that category. If you hold the CONTROL button down while left clicking, it will toggle that item on and off while leaving the other items in that category the same allowing you to add or subtract items. If you hold the SHIFT key down while left clicking, it will add all items in between where you clicked and the item you last clicked. You can clear all selections in a category by clicking the Filter Icon on the top right of each category (looks like a funnel with a X). You can also refresh the page to bring it back to its original state.

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/17 - 9/21/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by .23% to 5.80% while the Daily Coincident Index was flat at 2.54%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were down slightly for the week after being in the overbought territory last week. On the other hand, bonds were up for the week. WTI Crude Oil fell sharply from the overbought territory to the oversold territory. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/10 - 9/14/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by .47% to 6.03% and is now at the top of the tight range it has been in for the last 12 weeks. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 2.54%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities posted strong gains for back to back weeks. All the equity indices are in the overbought territory. SPY (S&P 500) is at an all time high and is now 3.7% higher than the 2007 highs. TLT (Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond) is now in the oversold territory. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/4 - 9/7/12)

The Daily Leading Index fell by .41% to 5.56%. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 3.22%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities posted strong gains last week. Most indices are in the overbought territory. SPY (S&P 500) is at an all time high and is now 1.7% higher than the 2007 highs. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

ISM Report on Business - 9/6/12

ISM's Non-Manufacturing Report on Business for August 2012 was released today. NMI, the composite index for Non-Manufacturing, came in at 53.65%, up 1.08% from July. PMI, the composite index for Manufacturing, was released on Monday and was at 49.6%, down .2% from July. A reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting. A reading below 42.6% for PMI indicates that the overall economy is declining. I have averaged the Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing components to create a composite reading.

The Manufacturing Sector continues to weaken. 3 of the 10 indices in the Manufacturing Report are below 50, which is the same as last month. On the other hand, the Non-Manufacturing Sector remains strong. 9 out of the 10 indices in the Non-Manufacturing Report are above 50; last month, 6 were above 50.

Below is an interactive graph. You can interact with the graph by choosing what to display. The INDICATOR category contains all 10 areas surveyed as well as the PMI and NMI composites. The choices in the MA/NMA category allow you to view the Manufacturing report (MA), the Non-manufacturing report (NMA), and a composite of the two. The DATES category allows you to view specific periods of time.  If you left click on a category, the chart will update with only data for that item in that category. If you hold the CONTROL button down while left clicking, it will toggle that item on and off while leaving the other items in that category the same allowing you to add or subtract items. If you hold the SHIFT key down while left clicking, it will add all items in between where you clicked and the item you last clicked. You can clear all selections in a category by clicking the Filter Icon on the top right of each category (looks like a funnel with a X). You can also refresh the page to bring it back to its original state.

 

Here is what some of the Respondents to the surveys are saying:

Manufacturing
• "Internal indicators and feedback from sales channels are indicating a slowdown in demand for capital equipment." (Machinery)
• "Business continues to be very solid, but there is now a slowing of incoming orders." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "Incoming orders have slowed somewhat, but indications are that there will be a stronger fourth quarter." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
• "Business is slow right now. Companies seem to be holding onto their money." (Computer & Electronic Products)
• "We can sense, feel and see headwinds with customer orders, especially Europe related." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
• "New orders and backlog remain flat." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
• "Auto industry slowing a bit in the second half [of the year]." (Transportation Equipment)
• "U.S. drought severely impacting raw materials prices." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
• "Lackluster demand continues in all regions of the world, and is supporting much lower raw materials prices in the second half of 2012." (Chemical Products)

Non-Manufacturing
• "Markets and customers we serve remain strong and have not caused any adverse impact to our business." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
• "Economy still stagnant. Small jobs keeping us going. Expect some improvement in capital spending in fourth quarter." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
• "Small slowdown in tourism. Commodity prices on the rise." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
• "Budgets are tighter; there are fewer new purchases being pursued that were not planned or budgeted." (Finance & Insurance)
• "Overall conditions continue to be unpredictable. Sales are inconsistent as customers reel to the news of the day, which creates havoc on the supply chain to respond."(Retail Trade)
• "Customers appear to be refocusing their resources on internal costs and efficiencies." (Wholesale Trade)

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/27 - 8/31/12)

The Daily Leading Index rose by .14% to 6.00% and has broken out of a narrow range it had been in for the previous ten weeks. The Daily Coincident Index fell to 3.32%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Equities were mostly down for the week while bonds were up. AGG, Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, is approaching the overbought territory. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.