Charting Last Week (3/23 - 3/27/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.46% percentage points to 5.04%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.54%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mixed. Fed Funds futures are implying a 38 percent chance of a rate hike by September with an implied rate of 0.32% (down from a 46 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.36%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. 
The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.38% percentage points to 2.06%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.72%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/16 - 3/20/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.14% percentage points to 5.49%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.54%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock and bond prices surged higher this week led by REITs which were up 5.6% for the week. The Fed made downward revisions to the expected path of the Fed Funds Rate. Fed Funds futures are now implying a 46 percent chance of a rate hike by September with an implied rate of 0.36% (down from a 58 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.43%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The market is still expecting a rate hike this year, but the expected timeline has been pushed back by a few weeks. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 1.69%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.78%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/9 - 3/13/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 1.00% percentage points to 5.64%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.84%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock and bond prices were mixed for the week. Fed Funds futures are now implying a 58 percent chance of a rate hike by September with an implied rate of 0.43% (down from a 66 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.48%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.07% percentage points to 1.58%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.79%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - March 2015

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to 1.58% and is 0.05% percentage points higher than last month.  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for three months in a row after falling steadily for ten months.  The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 4.79%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 7 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/2 - 3/6/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.12% percentage points to 6.64%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.84%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock and bond prices were down across the board on Friday after a stronger than expected employment report. Fed Funds futures are now implying a 66 percent chance of a rate hike in September (up from a 46 percent chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) had no updates and is at 1.51%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.99%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/23 - 2/27/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.62% percentage points to 6.51%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.44%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock were relatively flat after inching into record territory earlier in the week.  Bond prices were mostly up.  The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.05% percentage points to 1.51%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.74%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.