Charting Last Week (6/20 - 6/24/16)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.28% percentage points to 2.18%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.01%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock prices took a big hit on Friday as the UK voted to leave the European Union. There will be a two year period of exit negotiations that most likely won't start until this fall at the earliest. The 10 year Treasury fell to 1.57%, the lowest level since August of 2012. The Fed fund futures are implying no more rate hikes this year. Just four weeks ago, the futures were predicting a rate hike in July. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a only a 25% chance of a rate hike by February 2017 and a 5% chance of a rate cut according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.02% percentage points to 0.65%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 2.27%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (6/13 - 6/17/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.06% percentage points to 2.46%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.01%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed fund futures are implying no more rate hikes this year. Just three weeks ago, the futures were predicting a rate hike in July. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a only a 27% chance of a rate hike by February 2017 (down from an 57% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 0.63%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.31%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (6/6 - 6/10/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.14% percentage points to 2.40%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.20%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

U.S. stock prices were mixed for the week while international stock prices took a hit on Friday on fears of a British exit from the European Union. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 54% chance of a rate hike by December (down from an 61% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.11% percentage points to 0.65%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.18%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - June 2016

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.64% and is 0.10% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets has risen for the last two months after declining for six months straight. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.12%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 14 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (5/31 - 6/3/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.12% percentage points to 2.53%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.20%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock prices were up slightly for the week. Bond prices posted strong gains on Friday after a weak Employment Report. The Fed fund futures are pushing back the next expected rate hike back to December. Just last week the futures were pricing a rate hike in July. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 61% chance of a rate hike by December (down from an 80% chance last week) according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.01%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.