Charting Last Week (2/21 - 2/24/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.84% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.90% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.89%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were mostly up for the week as the S&P 500 crept higher into record territory. Bond prices were up across the board. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 69.6% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 (down from a 69.9% chance last week) and a second rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.13% percentage points to 1.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.03%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/13 - 2/17/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.83% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.89% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.88%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were up for the week as the S&P 500 moved higher into record territory. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 69.9% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 (up from a 67.4% chance last week) and a second rate hike in November according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 1.65%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.17% percentage points to 4.92%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/6 - 2/10/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.78% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.88% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.87%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were up for the week as the S&P 500 moved higher into record territory. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 67.4% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 (up from a 63.5% chance last week) and a second rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.24% percentage points to 1.65%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.75%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - February 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.60% and is 0.47% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 4.69%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 16 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/30 - 2/3/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.78% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.87% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 1.96%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks tallied a small gain for the week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 63.0% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 down from a 71.0% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.40%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.77%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Periodic Table of Investments - 2016

2016 was a solid year for most asset classes. 26 of the 27 asset classes tracked here had positive gains for the year led by Small Cap Equities which were up 26.6% for the year. Diversified Markets Growth was the only asset class with a negative return at -3.0%. Value equity indices outperformed growth indices across the board. The Periodic Table of Investments demonstrates the importance of diversification.

On the slideshow below, you can click on different indices on the left hand side to highlight each index. You can click on the navigation bar on the right hand side to jump to different sections.
 

Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of experiencing losses. All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.  The information on this website is provided “AS IS” and without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied.  Although North Star Capital Management, LLC (North Star) believes the information provided by this website to be accurate, we do not guarantee its accuracy.

It is important to note that using charts and graphs to help make investment decisions has many limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present. 

North Star does not provide investment advice through this website.  Investment advice should be tailored to meet an individual's risk tolerance and objectives.  Before rendering advice, North Star will always provide North Star’s Part II of Form ADV Brochure, help the client prepare a Client Investment Policy Statement and require execution of an Investment Advisory Agreement.  A copy of our brochure and privacy policy is available on request.  Nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance.