Charting Last Week (4/24-4/28/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that in the first quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 0.67% quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate. This was very close to the North Star Forecast of 0.74%. The growth rate was a lower than most economists were projecting. The average estimate of 60 economists surveyed in The Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey was 1.42%. 58 of the economists predicted higher growth ranging from 0.8% to 3.4%. One estimated 0.6% and one 0.7%. The North Star Forecast for next quarter is 1.84%. This is lower than all 60 economist's predictions which average 2.8% ranging from 2% to 4%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were up for the week while bond prices were mostly down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying two more rate hikes in 2017 with a 66.6% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 48.5% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.17% percentage points to 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.39%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

2017 Q1 GDP Growth Rate Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Advanced Estimate of the 2017 First Quarter GDP growth rate. The average prediction in the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey of 60 economists is a 1.42% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) with a high of 3.4% and a low of 0.6%. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is forecasting 0.17%. New York Fed's NowCast model is predicting 2.65%.

The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.05% year over year growth which comes out to 0.74% (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate). The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.08% year over year growth. Below is a slideshow of North Star's GDP Estimate and Forecast going back through the decades to 1920.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (4/17-4/21/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.94% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.97% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 2.01%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were mostly up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 54.8% chance of a rate hike by July (down from a 73.8% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.29%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.49%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (4/10-4/14/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.13% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.01% year over year growth down unchanged from last week's reading. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were down and bond prices were up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 57.8% chance of a rate hike by June (down from a 70.9% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.09% percentage points to 2.29%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.27%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - April 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.25% and is 0.27% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.27%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries yesterday. 14 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 7 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (4/3-4/7/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.96% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.01% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 2.02%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were mostly down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 70.9% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 58.7% chance last week) and another rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased to 2.20%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.32%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/27 - 3/31/17)

On Thursday the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the fourth quarter GDP growth rate (YoY) from 1.90% to 1.96%. This is very close to the North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter of 2.02% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.02% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 2.00%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were mostly up the week while bond prices were mostly. The Fed is talking about the possibility of four rate hikes in 2017, although Wall Street is still pricing in three rate hikes. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 58.7% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 46.6% chance last week) and another rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.32%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.