Charting Last Week (5/22 - 5/26/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that in the first quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 1.15% quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate, up from the previous estimate of 0.67%. This was close to the North Star Estimate of 1.32%. The growth rate was a higher than most economists were projecting. The average estimate of 50 economists surveyed in The Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey was 0.89%. The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.09% year over year growth (1.38% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.09% year over year growth (1.39% QoQ) up from last week's reading of 2.06%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

US Stocks were up as the S&P 500 hit a new record high this week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 83.1% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 78.5% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.13% percentage points to 2.74%, the highest it has been since July 2014. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.88%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

2017 Q1 GDP Growth Rate Second Estimate Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Second Estimate of the 2017 First Quarter GDP growth rate. The average prediction in the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey of 50 economists is a 0.89% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) with a high of 3.6% and a low of 0.5% (this is down from last month's average prediction of 1.42%). The Advanced Estimate of the 2017 First Quarter GDP growth rate announced on April 28 was 0.69%.

 The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.08% year over year growth which comes out to 1.32% (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) up from last month's Forecast of 0.74% (QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter of 2017 is 2.08% year over year growth (or 1.40% QoQ).

Charting Last Week (5/15 - 5/19/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.10% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.06% year over year growth the same as last week's reading. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Bond prices were mostly up and stock prices were slightly down for the week as volatility returned. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 78.5% chance of a rate hike by June (the same chance as the two last weeks) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.62%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.18%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (5/8 - 5/12/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.09% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.06% year over year growth down from last week's reading of 2.07%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were mostly down for the week while bond prices were up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying just one more rate hike in 2017 with a 78.5% chance of a rate hike by June (the same chance as last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.18% percentage points to 2.64%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.42%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - May 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.46% and is 0.22% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.32%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (5/1 - 5/5/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.08% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter of 2017 is at 2.07% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 2.03%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were mixed for the week while bond prices down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying two more rate hikes in 2017 with a 78.5% chance of a rate hike by June (up from a 66.6% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.39%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

   

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.