2017 Q2 GDP Growth Rate Second Estimate Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Second Estimate of the 2017 Second Quarter GDP growth rate. The average prediction in the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey is a 2.73% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate). The Advanced Estimate of the 2017 Second Quarter GDP growth rate announced on July 28 was 2.57%.

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter of 2017 is at 1.90% year over year growth or 1.84% (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is 1.98% year over year growth (or 2.35% QoQ).

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/21 - 8/25/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.91% year over year growth (1.89% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.98% year over year growth (2.36% QoQ) down from 2.07% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices both rose for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 51.9% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (up from a 49.8% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.71%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 4.72%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  


 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/14 - 8/18/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.01% year over year growth (2.29% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 2.07% year over year growth (2.67% QoQ) up from 2.01% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices fell for the second week in a row. Bond prices were mostly up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 50.4% chance of a rate hike by May 2018 (up from a 46.8% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.05% percentage points to 2.73%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.10%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/7 - 8/11/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.98% year over year growth (2.15% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 2.01% year over year growth (2.50% QoQ) up from 2.00% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks took a hit this week as North Korea and the U.S. traded harsh words. It was the first weekly decline of over 1% for the S&P 500 in four months. According to the Fed Funds futures the next rate hike has been pushed out to June of 2018 (last week it was March of 2018). The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.5% chance of a rate hike by June 2018 (down from a 69.2% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.14%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - August 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.79% and is 0.09% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 4.97%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Tuesday. 11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (7/31 - 8/4/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.96% year over year growth (2.08% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 2.00% year over year growth (2.45% QoQ) up from 1.94% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and Bond prices were mixed for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.7% chance of a rate hike by March 2018 (down from a 60.1% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.82%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.73%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.