2017 Q2 GDP Growth Rate Third Estimate Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Third Estimate of the 2017 Second Quarter GDP growth rate. The average Wall Street Forecast is 3.1% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) per CNBC's Rapid Update. The Second Estimate of the 2017 Second Quarter GDP growth rate announced last month was 3.03%.

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter of 2017 is at 1.91% year over year growth or 1.88% (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is 1.78% year over year growth (or 1.10% QoQ).

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/18 - 9/22/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.88% year over year growth (1.74% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.72% year over year growth (0.87% QoQ) down from 1.85% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were up slightly for the week while bond prices were down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 72.8% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 57.8% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.10% percentage points to 2.48%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.83%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/11 - 9/15/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.72% year over year growth (1.10% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.85% year over year growth (1.37% QoQ) up from 1.99% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks posted strong gains for the week after Hurricane Irma was weaker than expected. The S&P 500 crossed 2500 for the first time. Bond prices were mostly down for the week. Another rate hike is now in the cards for 2017. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.8% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 36.9% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.59%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.83%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - September 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.62% and is 0.16% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 4.82%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries last Thursday. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/5 - 9/8/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.86% year over year growth (1.68% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 2.00% year over year growth (1.96% QoQ) up from 1.99% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

U.S. stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mostly higher. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 55.5% chance of a rate hike by June 2018 (down from a 58.3% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.63%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.77%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

   

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (8/28 - 9/1/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Wednesday in the second estimate of GDP that in the second quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 2.20% year over year rate (3.03% QoQ). This was up from the previous release of 2.08% year over year rate (2.57% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.92% year over year growth (1.93% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.99% year over year growth (1.93% QoQ) down from 2.07% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices rose for the week while bond prices were lower. The likely month for the next rake hike has been pushed back to June 2018 (from March last week). The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 58.3% chance of a rate hike by June 2018 (down from a 60.3% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.71%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.25% percentage points to 4.97%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.