Charting Last Week (10/22/18 - 10/26/18)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday the first estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2018. GDP grew at a 3.04% year over year rate (3.50% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.34% year over year growth (2.24% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 2.30% year over year growth (2.05% QoQ) down from 2.40% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

It was an ugly week for stocks. The S&P 500 (SPY) was down 3.99% for the week. The market is starting to worry about earnings growth. However, analysts are raising their earnings estimates. According to Factset, for Q3 2018, the earnings growth rate is at 22.5% year over year. This is up from estimates of 19.3% in September. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 70.3% chance of one more rate hike in December (down from 83.9% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.08% percentage points to 0.81%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.42%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/15/18 - 10/19/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.45% year over year growth (1.14% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at 2.40% year over year growth (2.09% QoQ) down from 2.50% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The markets stabilized this week with stocks mostly up for the week while bond prices were mostly down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 83.9% chance of one more rate hike in December (up from 79.7% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.05% percentage points to 0.88%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/8/18 - 10/12/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.49% year over year growth (1.33% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at 2.51% year over year growth (2.35% QoQ) down from 2.53% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) declined 4.12% for the week, the largest weekly decline since March. Investors are worried about rising interests, the Chinese trade war, and a possible slowdown in Earnings Growth. However, Earnings for the S&P 500 companies are expected to grow at a rate of 19.1% over last year for the Third Quarter. The growth rate for the past three quarters have been the highest since 2011. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 79.7% chance of one more rate hike in December (down from 82.1% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.17% percentage points to 0.84%%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.71%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - October 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.84% and is 0.32% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.71%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 12 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/1/18 - 10/5/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.50% year over year growth (1.36% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at 2.53% year over year growth (2.41% QoQ) down from 2.56% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were down for the week. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%, the lowest rate since 1969. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 82.1% chance of one more rate hike in December (up from 79.5% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.01%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.09%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.