Charting Last Week (12/24/18 - 12/28/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.10% year over year growth (1.90% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.81% year over year growth (1.04% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) ended up 2.93% for the week after starting the week down with the biggest Christmas Eve decline ever. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 88.3% chance that the Fed won't hike rates during 2019 (up from 57.0% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.05%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 0.12% percentage points to 3.96%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/17/18 - 12/21/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.10% year over year growth (1.90% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.81% year over year growth (1.03% QoQ) down from 1.82% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 7.05% for the week over concerns over economic growth, trade wars, and politics. As expected, the Fed raised rates last week by a quarter of a percent. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.0% chance that the Fed won't hike rates during 2019 according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.14% percentage points to 0.05%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.08%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/10/18 - 12/14/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.13% year over year growth (1.87% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.82% year over year growth (0.97% QoQ) down from 1.89% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were down while bond prices were mostly up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 76.6% chance of one more rate hike in December (up from 73.2% last week) and only a 55.4% chance of only one additional hike in 2019 according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.38% percentage points to 0.19%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.85%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - December 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.19% and is 0.58% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.85%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 14 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/3/18 - 12/7/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.08% year over year growth (1.78% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.70% year over year growth (0.68% QoQ) down from 1.89% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The stock market took a beating as early optimism faded after an agreement between the US and China to freeze escalations in the trade war for 90 days. There are fears that there won't be enough time to work out the trading issues. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 73.2% chance of one more rate hike in December (down from 82.7% last week) and only a 50.6% chance of only one additional hike in 2019 according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.56%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.02% percentage points to 4.09%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/26/18 - 11/30/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.13% year over year growth (1.98% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.89% year over year growth (1.28% QoQ) down from 2.07% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) rose 4.71% during the week. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said current interest rates are just below neutral. This is a dramatic shift from October when he said rates were a long way from neutral. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 82.7% chance of one more rate hike in December (up from 74.1% last week) and a 66.8% chance of only one additional hike in 2019 according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.56%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 0.47% percentage points to 4.07%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.