Charting Last Week (1/22/19 - 1/25/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.14% year over year growth (1.87% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.82% year over year growth (0.97% QoQ) up from 1.78% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were mixed for the week while bond prices were mostly up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 28.5% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2019 (down from 32.5% last week) and a 4.8% chance that they will cut rates according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.04% percentage points to -.04%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.69%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Magic Number for Retirement

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/14/19 - 1/18/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.12% year over year growth (1.84% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.78% year over year growth (0.86% QoQ) down from 2.11% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 rose by 2.80% this week, the fourth weekly gain in a row. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 32.5% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2019 (up from 16.1% last week) and a 10.6% chance that they will cut rates according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.35% percentage points to -.08%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.75%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - January 2019

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.08% and is 0.22% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.90%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 16 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 6 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/7/19 - 1/11/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.51% year over year growth (1.75% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 2.11% year over year growth (0.61% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 rose by 2.61% this week, the third weekly gain in a row. The Fed Funds futures are now implying only a 16.1% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2019 (up from 5.1% last week) and a 15.0% chance that they will cut rates according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.22% percentage points to 0.27%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.89%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/31/18 - 1/4/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.51% year over year growth (1.76% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 2.11% year over year growth (1.04% QoQ) up from 1.81% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The market rallied on Friday after a strong jobs report and comments by Fed Chair Powell that the Fed will be flexible and is not in a hurry to raise rates. The Fed Funds futures are now implying only a 5.1% chance that the Fed will raise rates in 2019 (down from 11.7% last week) and a 25.4% chance that they will cut rates according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.05%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.96%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.