Charting Last Week (2/18/20 - 2/21/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.00% year over year growth (0.79% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2020 is at 1.75% year over year growth (0.82% QoQ) down from 1.83% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) hit record highs in the middle of the week but ended down for the week. Bond prices were up for the week with the 30 Year Treasury reaching an all-time low of 1.89%. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 58.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.25% by next June up from a 46.1% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to -0.90%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.03%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/10/20 - 2/14/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.01% year over year growth (0.83% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2020 is at 1.83% year over year growth (1.11% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were up across the board led by REITs (VNQ), which were up 4.17% for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 46.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.25% by next June up from a 45.4% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.20% percentage points to -0.89%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.02%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - February 2020

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.89% and is 0.34% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.02%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 16 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 6 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/3/20 - 2/7/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.00% year over year growth (0.81% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2020 is at 1.83% year over year growth (1.11% QoQ) up from 1.55% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were up across the board while bond prices were mostly down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 45.4% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.25% by next June downfrom a 59.9% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.06% percentage points to -1.08%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.64%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/27/20 - 1/31/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.03% year over year growth (0.92% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2020 is at 1.55% year over year growth (0.02% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were down while bond prices were up for the week as the Coronavirus stoked fears. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 59.9% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.25% by next June up from a 22.5% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -1.14%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.04% percentage points to 4.77%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.