Charting Last Week (4/20/20 - 4/24/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -0.34% year over year growth (-7.26% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -0.82% year over year growth (0.04% QoQ) down from -0.68% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were down for the week while Treasuries were up. The big news for the week was oil prices briefly going negative for the first time in history. No one wanted to take physical delivery as storage in near max capacity and demand has collapsed. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.03% percentage points to -2.57%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.94%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (4/13/20 - 4/17/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -0.11% year over year growth (-6.42% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -0.68% year over year growth (-0.30% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

It was a mixed week for stocks and bonds as the market shrugged off some of the bad news. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.74% percentage points to -2.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.25%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (4/6/20 - 4/9/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.06% year over year growth (2.01% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.82% year over year growth (1.02% QoQ) down from 1.84% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

In a classic bear market rally, the S&P 500 (SPY) rallied 12.20% for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.76% percentage points to -1.79%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.44%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - April 2020

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -1.79% and is 0.59% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.44%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Wednesday. 17 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 13 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/27/20 - 4/3/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.11% year over year growth (2.19% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.84% year over year growth (0.95% QoQ) up from 1.80% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week down 2.16%. The biggest one day move was down 4.50% on Wednesday. The biggest one day moves in the previous 3 weeks were all over 9.00%. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -1.00%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.30%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.