Charting Last Week (5/25/20 - 5/29/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -10.47% year over year growth (-39.6% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -7.98% year over year growth (-27.60% QoQ) down from -3.89% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were up for the week while bond prices were mixed. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -7.18%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM )decreased by 2.55% percentage points to -6.27%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (5/18/20 - 5/22/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -3.07% year over year growth (-17.03% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -3.89% year over year growth (-14.07% QoQ) down from -3.63% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were up for the week while bond prices were mixed. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.31% percentage points to -7.18%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at -3.72%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - May 2020

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -6.88% and is 4.76% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at -2.49%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries last Tuesday. 19 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 15 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Air Travel

The number of travelers (checked through security) has dropped from 2,433,520 (7 day average) a year ago to 212,580, or a 91.3% drop. https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Meanwhile, the number of commercial flights has dropped from 111,249 (7 day average) four months ago to 33,638, or a 69.8% drop. https://flightradar24.com/data/statistics

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (5/11/20 - 5/15/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -2.68% year over year growth (-15.68% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -3.63% year over year growth (-13.12% QoQ) down from -2.84% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were down for the week while bond prices increased as Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, warned that economic recovery from the pandemic could stretch to the end of next year. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.70% percentage points to -3.44%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 0.86%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (5/4/20 - 5/8/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -2.03% year over year growth (-13.40% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -2.84% year over year growth (-10.25% QoQ) down from -1.61% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks continued to rally this week. The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.4, the highest since April 2002. Since March 23, the S&P 500 has increased by 28.8%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has decreased by 16.2%. Usually they move in the same direction. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.17% percentage points to -2.74%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 1.81%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (4/27/20 - 5/1/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is -1.27% year over year growth (-10.67% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at -1.61% year over year growth (5.62% QoQ) down from -0.82% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and Bond prices were mixed for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -2.57%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 1.06% percentage points to 1.88%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.