The Daily Leading Index rose by 1.11% percentage points to 5.06%. The biggest factor in the increase was manufacturers' new orders of durable goods, which rose by 4.7% in December and was the second largest monthly increase in 2012. The Daily Coincident Index surged to 4.83%. The increase was mostly due to businesses paying out special dividends and bonuses, etc. before the tax cuts expired. The
Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities were up for the week. The S&P500 (SPY) closed out the week in record territory. Bonds were down for the week. Long term treasuries (TLT) are now down year over year. TLT rose over 57% from February 2011 to July 2012. They are now down almost 12% from July. The yield on the 10 year treasuries is over 2% for the first time since April 2012. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to .05% after Australia's Leading Index improved to 0.59% from 0.26% where it was mid January. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 4.96% after an increase in Taiwan's Leading Index. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
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Furthermore, these charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.
