Charting Last Week (5/4- 5/8/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 4.73%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.35%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.

Stock prices were mostly up for the week rallying after the April Employment report showed the economy continued to grow but at a slow enough pace that investors believe won't encourage the Fed to raise rates soon. Bond prices were mostly down. The 10 Year Treasury rose to 2.15% up from 1.91% two weeks ago.

 The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 53 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.41% (down from a 65 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.48%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

 With 91% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.6% year over year. This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.31%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.76%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

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These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.