Charting Last Week (12/19 - 12/23/16)

The third estimate of third quarter GDP was released this Thursday coming in 3.51% growth rate over second quarter at an annualized rate or 1.65% over last year. This is very close to the North Star GDP Estimate for third quarter of 1.67% year over year. The North Star GDP Forecast for fourth quarter is a rate of 1.65% year over year.

Stock prices were mixed for the week while Bond prices were up. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 71.6% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 down from a 75.3% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

  The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.03% percentage points to 1.01%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.78%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.