Charting Last Week (1/23 - 1/27/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday that the fourth quarter GDP grew at 1.91% compared to last year. The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.83% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.96% year over year growth. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock were up for the week while bond prices were mixed. The S&P 500 rose to new record highs. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 71.0% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 down from a 71.9% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.23% percentage points to 1.40%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 4.77%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

2016 4th Quarter GDP Forecasts

Tomorrow the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the official advance estimate of real GDP Growth for the 4th quarter of 2016.

The Wall Street Journal surveys over 60 economists on various economic indicators. Their average forecast for the 4th Quarter GDP is an annualized growth rate of 2.15%. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Nowcast model is forecasting a 4th Quarter GDP growth rate of 2.06%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model is forecasting a 4th Quarter GDP growth rate of 2.88%. 

North Star's 4th Quarter GDP Forecast is 1.78% year over year growth (or an annualized growth rate of 1.38% over the third quarter). Below is a slideshow of North Star's GDP Estimate and Forecast going back through the decades to 1920.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/17 - 1/20/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.64% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter was unchanged and is also at 1.78% year over year growth. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and Bond prices were down slightly for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 71.9% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 up from a 68.8% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.05% percentage points to 1.17%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 4.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/9 - 1/13/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.64% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter was unchanged and is also at 1.64% year over year growth. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 was flat this week while bond prices were up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 68.8% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 down from a 69.1% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.20% percentage points to 1.22%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - January 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.13% and is 0.07% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 4.67%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 15 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (1/3 - 1/6/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.64% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter was unchanged and is also at 1.64% year over year growth. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 started off the year strong, moving higher into record territory. Both stock and bond prices were up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 69.1% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 up from a 67.8% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

  There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.01%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.67%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/27 - 12/30/16)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.67% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter decreased by 0.01% percentage points 1.64% year over year growth. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were down for the week while Bond prices were up. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 67.8% chance of another rate hike by June 2017 down from a 71.6% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 1.01%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 4.67%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.