The Wall Street Journal surveys over 60 economists on various economic indicators. Their average forecast for the 4th Quarter GDP is an annualized growth rate of 2.15%. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Nowcast model is forecasting a 4th Quarter GDP growth rate of 2.06%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model is forecasting a 4th Quarter GDP growth rate of 2.88%.
North Star's 4th Quarter GDP Forecast is 1.78% year over year growth (or an annualized growth rate of 1.38% over the third quarter). Below is a slideshow of North Star's GDP Estimate and Forecast going back through the decades to 1920.
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.
