Charting Last Week (3/20 - 3/24/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.95% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.00% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.99%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were mostly down for the week while bond prices were mostly. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 58.3% chance of a rate hike by July (down from a 62.0% chance last week) and another rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.32% percentage points to 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

Charting Last Week (3/13 - 3/17/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.90% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.99% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.97%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices mostly up for the week. The Fed raised rates by 0.25 on Wednesday. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 54.0% chance of a rate hike by June (down from a 55.4% chance last week) and another rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.15% percentage points to 2.13%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.33%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/6 - 3/10/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.83% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.97% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.96%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were down for the week. The S&P 500 fell slightly for the week breaking a four week streak of setting new record highs. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 93.0% chance of another rate hike this month (up from a 79.7% chance last week) and a total of three rate hikes (compared to two last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.20% percentage points to 1.98%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 5.26%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - March 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.02% and is 0.42% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.36%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 16 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 12 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/27 - 3/3/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Tuesday revised the fourth quarter GDP growth rate (YoY) from 1.91% to 1.90%. This is very close to the North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter of 1.83% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 1.96% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.90%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock and bond prices were mixed for the week. The S&P 500 has now hit a new record high for four weeks in a row. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 79.% chance of another rate hike this month (up from a 17.7% chance last week) and a total of three rate hikes this year (compared to two last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 1.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.42%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.