Charting Last Week (3/20 - 3/24/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 1.95% year over year growth. The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2017 is at 2.00% year over year growth up from last week's reading of 1.99%. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were mostly down for the week while bond prices were mostly. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 58.3% chance of a rate hike by July (down from a 62.0% chance last week) and another rate hike in December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.32% percentage points to 2.46%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 5.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.