Charting Last Week (10/23 - 10/27/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Wednesday in the first estimate of GDP that in the third quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 2.26% year over year rate (2.99% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.90% year over year growth (1.56% QoQ) down from 1.91% last week. The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 1.98% year over year growth (0.64% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 managed a small gain to moved higher into record territory this week, hitting new highs for the fifth consecutive week. Bond prices were down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 93.1% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.33%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.36%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

2017 Q3 GDP Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Advanced Estimate of the 2017 Third Quarter GDP growth rate. The average prediction in the Wall Street Journal's Economic Forecasting Survey with 59 projections from economists is a 2.38% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) with a high of 3.2% and a low of 1.5%. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is forecasting 2.52%. New York Fed's NowCast model is predicting 1.46%.

The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.64% (QoQ) or 1.92% year over year growth.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/16 - 10/20/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.88% year over year growth (1.75% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.91% year over year growth (1.60% QoQ) up from 1.89% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 moved higher into record territory this week, hitting new highs for the fourth consecutive week. Bond prices were down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 93.1% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 82.9% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.34%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.02%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/9 - 10/13/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.89% year over year growth (1.80% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.89% year over year growth (1.51% QoQ) up from 1.81% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 moved higher into record territory this week. Bond prices were mixed for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 82.9% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (down from a 90.6% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.21% percentage points to 2.32%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.94%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - October 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.45% and is 0.17% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.90%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 6 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (10/02 - 10/06/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.91% year over year growth (1.89% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.81% year over year growth (1.21% QoQ) up from 1.80% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 moved higher into record territory this week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 90.6% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 77.9% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.89%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

   

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (9/25 - 9/29/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 1.97% year over year growth (2.10% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.80% year over year growth (1.17% QoQ) up from 1.72% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) closed the month at a new record high, up 4.4% for the quarter. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 77.9% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 72.8% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.04% percentage points to 2.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.89%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.