Charting Last Week (10/23 - 10/27/17)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Wednesday in the first estimate of GDP that in the third quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 2.26% year over year rate (2.99% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.90% year over year growth (1.56% QoQ) down from 1.91% last week. The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 1.98% year over year growth (0.64% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 managed a small gain to moved higher into record territory this week, hitting new highs for the fifth consecutive week. Bond prices were down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (up from a 93.1% chance last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.33%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.36%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

 

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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.