The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.40% year over year growth (2.48% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 1.93% year over year growth (1.48% QoQ) up from 1.96% last week. The
GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The 10 Year Treasury yield briefly fell below the yield on the 2 Year Treasury this week for the first time since 2007. When short term yields are higher than long term yields this is known as an inverted yield curve. The yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1980. However, the average time between the first inversion and the start of the recession has been 18 months. This would put the start of the recession around early 2021. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 92.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.50% by the end of the year up from a 85.5% chance last week according to CME Group's
FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to -0.93%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.27%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.
