The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is -1.38% year over year growth (4.78% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter is at 0.14% year over year growth (5.12% QoQ) down from 0.19% last week. The
GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
It was a mixed week for stocks while bond prices were down. The 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate has steadily gone up over the last year and is at 2.29%. This is the rate that the market thinks inflation will average over the next 5 years. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 2.64% percentage points to 2.38%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 9.33%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.
