Sunday, June 17, 2018

Charting Last Week (6/11/18 - 6/15/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.24% year over year growth (-0.03% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.31% year over year growth (1.11% QoQ) up from 2.24% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock prices were mostly down while bond prices were mostly up for the week. As expected, the Feds raised rates by 0.25%. The Prime Rate is now at 5.00%. The Fed started raising rates in December 2015 when Prime was at 3.25%. During the last cycle, Prime reached a high of 8.25% in December 2006. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 56.4% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 38.6% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.08% percentage points to 1.63%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.33%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Friday, June 15, 2018

International Leading Indicators - June 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.63% and is 0.20% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.33%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Wednesday. 11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

Charting Last Week (6/4/18 - 6/8/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.24% year over year growth (-0.11% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.24% year over year growth (0.75% QoQ) down from 2.24% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 rose for the third week in a row. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 83.3% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 82.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.71%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 0.15% percentage points to 5.35%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

Charting Last Week (5/29/18 - 6/1/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.23% year over year growth (-0.14% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.24% year over year growth (0.75% QoQ) down from 2.25% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock and Bond prices were mixed for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 82.3% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 78.1% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.75%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 5.55%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Charting Last Week (5/21/18 - 5/25/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.18% year over year growth (-0.32% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.25% year over year growth (0.65% QoQ) down from 2.27% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The market was mostly up for the week led by treasuries and bonds. The 10 year Treasury is back below 3% at 2.93%. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 78.1% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 91.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.10% percentage points to 1.75%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.62%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.