Monday, December 11, 2017

International Leading Indicators - December 2017

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.55% and is 0.11% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.49%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Charting Last Week (12/4 - 12/8/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.03% year over year growth (2.03% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 2.00% year over year growth (0.38% QoQ) up from 1.94% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 crept higher into record territory this week. Bond prices also posted small gains for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (the same as last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.06% percentage points to 2.60%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Charting Last Week (11/27 - 12/1/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 2.00% year over year growth (1.89% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 1.94% year over year growth (0.13% QoQ) up from 1.91% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
U.S. stocks moved higher into record territory, while International stocks were mostly down for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (the same as last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.08% percentage points to 5.58%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

2017 Q3 GDP Growth Rate Second Estimate Predictions

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will announce the Second Estimate of the 2017 Third Quarter GDP growth rate. The average Wall Street Forecast is 3.3% GDP growth rate (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate) per CNBC's Rapid Update. The Advanced Estimate of the 2017 Third Quarter GDP growth rate announced last month was 2.99%.

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter of 2017 is at 1.94% year over year growth or 1.75% (quarter over quarter growth at an annualized rate). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is 1.96% year over year growth (or 0.57% QoQ).


All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Charting Last Week (11/20 - 11/24/17)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is 1.91% year over year growth (1.59% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017 is at 1.91% year over year growth (0.37% QoQ) down from 1.96% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock and bond prices were up for the week as the S&P closed above 2600 for the first time. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance of a rate hike by December 2017 (the same as last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.53%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.50%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.