Sunday, January 31, 2016

Charting Last Week (1/25 - 1/29/16)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 2.18% percentage points to 0.66%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.62%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Both stocks and bonds rallied on Friday as the Bank of Japan joined the negative interest club cutting interest rates to -0.1%. In 2014, the European became the first major central bank to cut rates below zero. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.15% percentage points to 1.69%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.98%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Charting Last Week (1/18 - 1/22/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.70% percentage points to 2.84%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.62%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities finished the week up from last week after falling earlier in the week. Bond prices were mostly down for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.01% percentage points to 1.85%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.99%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Charting Last Week (1/11 - 1/15/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.03% percentage points to 3.54%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.62%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities were down for the week after a volatile first two weeks to start the year. Bond prices were mostly up for the week. Oil prices closed below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years. China's stock market has entered a bear market falling 20% from its recent high in December. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.32% percentage points to 1.83%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 2.99%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Friday, January 15, 2016

International Leading Indicators - January 2016

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.55% and is 0.01% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.00%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 10 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Charting Last Week (1/4 - 1/8/16)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.32% percentage points to 3.50%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.78%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
The S&P 500 fell 5.86% for the week. International stocks fared even worse fed by worries about China. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 10% for the week. Oil prices continued to weaken, also falling 10% for the week. Bond prices were mostly up for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.57%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.00%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Charting Last Week (12/28 - 12/31/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.17% percentage points to 3.83%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.67%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock were down for the week while bond prices were mixed for the week. The S&P 500 (SPY) finished the year up 1.23% while the rest of the stock indices were down for the year. Bond prices were mixed for the year. The U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (AGG) was up 0.48% for the year. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 1.57%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 3.00%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.