Sunday, March 25, 2018

Charting Last Week (3/19/18 - 3/23/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.07% year over year growth (0.84% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.10% year over year growth (-0.31% QoQ) up from 2.07% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Equities dropped sharply this week as President Trump announced tarrifs and penalties against China sparking fears of a trade war. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 76.9% chance of three more rate hikes this year (up from 73.4% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 2.37%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.02%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Charting Last Week (3/12/18 - 3/16/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.09% year over year growth (0.91% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.07% year over year growth (-0.44% QoQ) down from 2.09% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks were down for the week while bond prices were mostly up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 73.4% chance of three more rate hikes this year (the same as last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.39%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.05%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Friday, March 16, 2018

International Leading Indicators - March 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.39% and is 0.18% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.05%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries last week. 15 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.


All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Charting Last Week (3/5/18 - 3/9/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.08% year over year growth (0.88% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.09% year over year growth (-0.37% QoQ) up from 2.06% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The stock market posted strong gains for the week. After dropping 10.1% in two weeks at the beginning of February, the S&P 500 (SPY) has now recovered 8.2%. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 73.4% chance of three more rate hikes this year (up from 68.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.20% percentage points to 2.38%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.01%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Charting Last Week (2/26 - 3/2/18)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Wednesday in the second estimate of GDP that in the fourth quarter of 2017 GDP grew at 2.30% year over year rate (2.54% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.04% year over year growth (0.72% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2018 is at 2.06% year over year growth (-0.46% QoQ) down from 2.21% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Equities gave up some of the gains of the previous two week recovery. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 68.3% chance of three more rate hikes this year (up from 64.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.09% percentage points to 2.58%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.83%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.