Sunday, October 25, 2015

Charting Last Week (10/19 - 10/23/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.35% percentage points to 1.60%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.55%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks prices were mostly up while bond prices were mixed for the week. The European Central Bank (ECB) hinted at more quantitative easing and the China's central bank cut rates for the sixth time since November. The likely timing of the first rate hike by the Fed has slipped to March 2016. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 60% chance of a rate hike by March 2016 with an implied rate of 0.28% (a change from a 52% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.27%) according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.39%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 2.22%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Charting Last Week (10/12 - 10/16/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.86% percentage points to 1.95%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.59%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks prices were mixed while bond prices were up for the week. The likely timing of the first rate hike by the Fed has slipped to March 2016. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 52% chance of a rate hike by March 2016 with an implied rate of 0.27% (a change from a 59% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.29%) according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.41%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 2.10%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Charting Last Week (10/5 - 10/9/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.07% percentage points to 1.09%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.59%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks prices were up across the board while bond prices were mixed for the week. The likely timing of the first rate hike by the Fed has slipped to March 2016. At the beginning of September, most economists thought the Fed would raise rates later that month. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 59% chance of a rate hike by March 2016 with an implied rate of 0.29% (a change from a 53% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.27%) according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 2.34% and is 0.19% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) had risen for nine months in a row before falling this month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) also fell to 2.34%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

International Leading Indicators - October 2015

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.34% and is 0.19% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) had risen for nine months in a row before falling this month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) also fell to 2.34%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 12 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 9 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, October 4, 2015

Charting Last Week (9/28 - 10/2/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.82% percentage points to 1.16%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.59%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks and bond prices were mostly up for the week. The likely timing of the first rate hike by the Fed has slipped to March 2016. At the beginning of September, most economists thought the Fed would raise rates later that month. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 53% chance of a rate hike by March 2016 with an implied rate of 0.27% (a change from a 62% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.32%) according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.43%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is also at 2.43% after slipping 0.12% percentage points this week. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.