Sunday, October 27, 2013

Charting Last Week (10/21 - 10/25/13)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.05% percentage points to 5.68%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.69%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities and Bond Prices rose for the week with the exception of International Emerging Markets (EEM), which was down 1.3%. The S&P 500 pushed farther into record territory. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) rose by 0.02 percentage points to 3.79%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose slightly to 3.89%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Charting Last Week (10/14 - 10/18/13)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.13% percentage points to 5.74%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.69%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities and Bond Prices rose across the board and are now in the overbought territory as the U.S. Shutdown has ended. Just last week, U.S. Equities were in the oversold territory. The S&P 500 is once again in record territory. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) rose by 0.16 percentage points to 3.77% and is the highest since the end of 2010. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 3.85%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Charting Last Week (10/7 - 10/14/13)

The Daily Leading Index fell by 0.23% percentage points to 5.88%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.69%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
The U.S. Bond market was closed for Columbus Day today. Equities continued their rebound after hitting the oversold territory last week. Bond prices were mostly down for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) rose by 0.10 percentage points to 3.61%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell slightly to 3.76%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell slightly to 3.84%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, October 9, 2013

International Leading Indicators - 10/9/13

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to 3.53% and is 0.10% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) dropped to 3.76%. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets has continued to slowly rise this year while the Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets has slowly declined for the last six months.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Charting Last Week (9/30 - 10/4/13) - The Shutdown Edition

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.06% percentage points to 6.11%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.69%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With the U.S. Government shutdown, the big question is how this will affect the markets. With the Budget Crisis of 2011, the Daily Leading Index dropped to 1.01% and the S&P500 (SPY) dropped by 17.9%. With the Budget Sequestration of 2013, the Daily Leading Index dropped to 1.48% in December 2012 and the S&P500 dropped by 7.3%. The U.S. Government shutdown hasn't impacted the Daily Leading Index yet.

Scott Minerd, with Guggenheim, has researched the impact of the previous shutdowns:
"There have been 17 U.S. federal government shutdowns since 1976. Excluding drastic moves in commodity prices and bond yields in the late 1970s, analysis of eight occasions during the past 30 years reveals that U.S. equities and the dollar tend to decline during shutdown periods, while gold and commodities tend to perform well. Shutdown periods do not appear to have a significant effect on 10-year Treasury yields. Historically, when a shutdown ends, market performance reverses quickly, and Treasury yields fall by an average of 22 basis points over the following 10 days. The economic impact of a shutdown largely depends on its duration. According to consensus estimates, a week-long shutdown would cut annualized GDP growth by approximately 25 basis points in the fourth quarter."


Equities were down for the week after hitting the overbought territory two weeks ago. Bond prices were mostly up for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 3.51%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.84%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.