Charting Last Week (12/21/20 - 12/24/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -2.48% year over year growth (19.41% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at -1.22% year over year growth (2.14% QoQ) down from 0.61% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were mixed for the week while bond prices were mostly up. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -1.87%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.22% percentage points to 7.51%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/14/20 - 12/18/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -1.15% year over year growth (22.08% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at -0.61% year over year growth (4.27% QoQ) down from 0.02% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stock prices were up for the week while bond prices were mixed. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.41% percentage points to -1.87%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 7.29%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (12/7/20 - 12/11/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -0.33% year over year growth (27.88% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at 0.02% year over year growth (5.07% QoQ) up from -0.12% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

It was a big week for IPOs. Airbnb (ABNB) more than doubled its IPO price, while DoorDash (DASH) was up 85% on its first day. Meanwhile Tesla (TSLA) raised $5 billion with an at the market offering program. Stocks were down for the week while bond prices were up. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 1.76% percentage points to -2.28%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 7.57%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/30/20 - 12/4/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -0.34% year over year growth (27.88% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at -0.12% year over year growth (5.08% QoQ) down from -0.11% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks were up for the week while bond prices were mixed. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -4.04%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 7.32%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/23/20 - 11/27/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -1.25% year over year growth (19.41% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at -0.11% year over year growth (3.63% QoQ) up from -0.37% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The stock market was up for the week once again led by Small Cap (IJR) while bond prices were mixed. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -4.04%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased by 0.65% percentage points to 7.32%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/16/20 - 11/20/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -0.89% year over year growth (20.41% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at -0.37% year over year growth (3.93% QoQ) up from -0.66% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The stock market was up for the week led by Small Cap Value (VBR) while bond prices were mixed. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.52% percentage points to -4.04%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.67%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (11/9/20 - 11/13/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the third quarter is -0.82% year over year growth (23.25% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the fourth quarter is at -0.66% year over year growth (3.82% QoQ) down from -0.61% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Stocks rallied for the week while bond prices were mixed. There has been a shift out of growth stocks into value stocks. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was down 1.25% for the week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 1.18% percentage points to -4.56%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.11%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

International Leading Indicators - November 2020

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -4.56% and is 0.19% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 6.11%. 

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 14 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.