Sunday, April 26, 2015

Charting Last Week (4/20 - 4/24/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.50% percentage points to 4.69%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.91%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock were up for the week while bond prices were mostly lower. The S&P 500 is once again in record territory squeaking past the previous record highs set in March. The Nasdaq finally eclipsed the old closing record set in March of 2000.

 The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 56 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.43% (down from a 57 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.44) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.02% percentage points to 2.23%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.98%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Charting Last Week (4/13 - 4/17/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.33% percentage points to 4.19%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.91%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock were down for the week while bond prices were mostly higher. Earlier this year, it was thought that June might be when the Fed starts to raise rates. That was pushed back to September. Currently, December looks like the month when the rate hikes start. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.44% (down from a 64 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.49) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.07% percentage points to 2.21%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.11%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

Charting Last Week (4/6 - 4/10/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.01% percentage points to 4.52%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.28%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices moved higher this week while bond prices were mixed. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 33 percent chance of a rate hike by September with an implied rate of 0.30% (unchanged from a 33 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.29%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.15%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.11%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

International Leading Indicators - April 2015

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to 2.10% and is 0.52% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for four months in a row after falling steadily for ten months. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 4.32%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Thursday. 14 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 12 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Charting Last Week (3/30 - 4/3/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.48% percentage points to 4.51%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 4.28%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices moved higher this week while bond prices were mixed. After a weak jobs report, Fed Funds futures are now implying a 33 percent chance of a rate hike by September with an implied rate of 0.29% (down from a 38 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.32%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.06%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.72%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.