Sunday, August 18, 2019

Charting Last Week (8/12/19 - 8/16/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.40% year over year growth (2.48% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 1.93% year over year growth (1.48% QoQ) up from 1.96% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The 10 Year Treasury yield briefly fell below the yield on the 2 Year Treasury this week for the first time since 2007. When short term yields are higher than long term yields this is known as an inverted yield curve. The yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1980. However, the average time between the first inversion and the start of the recession has been 18 months. This would put the start of the recession around early 2021. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 92.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.50% by the end of the year up from a 85.5% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to -0.93%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.27%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Charting Last Week (8/5/19 - 8/9/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.40% year over year growth (2.51% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 1.96% year over year growth (1.59% QoQ) up from 1.91% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The stock market rebounded after dipping earlier in the week. Bond prices are up as interest rates fell. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 85.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.50% by the end of the year up from a 75.6% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.11% percentage points to -0.89%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.22%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Thursday, August 8, 2019

International Leading Indicators - August 2019

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.89% and is 0.21% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.29%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 11 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 7 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Charting Last Week (7/29/19 - 8/2/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.16% year over year growth (1.56% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 1.91% year over year growth (1.41% QoQ) down from 1.93% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 (SPY) fell 3.11% for the week with most of the losses coming after President Trump threatened to levy a 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 75.6% chance that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 0.50% by the end of the year up from a 54.2% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.19%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 28, 2019

Charting Last Week (7/22/19 - 7/26/19)

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Friday in the first estimate of GDP that in the second quarter of 2019 GDP grew at 2.29% year over year rate (2.06% QoQ). This was down from the previous quarter of 2.65% year over year rate (3.10% QoQ). The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.19% year over year growth (1.66% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 1.93% year over year growth (1.49% QoQ) up from 1.74% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The stock market set new record highs again this week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 19.9% chance that the Fed will cut rates in this week by 0.50% and a 80.1% chance that they will cut rates by 0.25% according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to -0.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.19%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 21, 2019

Charting Last Week (7/15/19 - 7/19/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.19% year over year growth (-0.51% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.93% year over year growth (-0.87% QoQ) the same as last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The stock market retreated from last week's record highs while bond prices were mostly up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 22.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July by 0.50% and a 77.5% chance that they will cut rates by 0.25% according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.07% percentage points to -0.77%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.37%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Charting Last Week (7/8/19 - 7/12/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.20% year over year growth (-0.43% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.93% year over year growth (-0.89% QoQ) up from 1.92% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 closed above 3000 for the first time ever. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 23.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July by 0.50% and a 77.0% chance that they will cut rates by 0.25% according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.03% percentage points to -0.70%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.38%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, July 7, 2019

Charting Last Week (7/1/19 - 7/5/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.13% year over year growth (-0.83% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.92% year over year growth (-0.91% QoQ) up from 1.79% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 gained 1.86% for the week and pushed higher into record territory. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July (up from 17.4% last month) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.73%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.43%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, June 30, 2019

Charting Last Week (6/24/19 - 6/28/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.13% year over year growth (-0.65% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.79% year over year growth (-1.42% QoQ) down from 1.90% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock and Bond prices were mostly up for the week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 100.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July (up from 17.4% last month) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.73%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 0.08% percentage points to 4.43%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.