Sunday, May 19, 2019

Charting Last Week (5/13/19 - 5/17/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.50% year over year growth (-2.46% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.06% year over year growth (2.39% QoQ) down from 2.13% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
S&P 500 (SPY) was down 0.78% for the week as U.S. China trade tensions escalated. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 73.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (up from 57.2% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.03% percentage points to -0.81%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.43%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

International Leading Indicators - May 2019

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.78% and is 0.20% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.34%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 10 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 7 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Charting Last Week (5/6/19 - 5/10/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.53% year over year growth (-2.11% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 2.13% year over year growth (2.54% QoQ) up from 1.86% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
S&P 500 (SPY) was down 2.02% for the week as U.S. China trade war concerns flared up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57.2% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (up from 47.0 last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.12% percentage points to -0.78%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.13%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 5, 2019

Charting Last Week (4/29/19 - 5/3/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.27% year over year growth (-1.61% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.86% year over year growth (2.48% QoQ) up from 1.77% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
S&P 500 (SPY) rebounded on Friday and closed the week in record territory. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 47.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (down from 65.8% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA)is at -0.66%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.00%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  

Sunday, April 28, 2019

Charting Last Week (4/22/19 - 4/26/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.10% year over year growth (-1.62% QoQ) up from 2.07% last week. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.77% year over year growth (2.82% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
US stock and bond prices were up for the week as the S&P 500 (SPY) closed the week in record territory. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 65.8% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (up from 42.9% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.02% percentage points to -0.66%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.00%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 21, 2019

Charting Last Week (4/15/19 - 4/19/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.08% year over year growth (-1.73% QoQ) up from 2.07% last week. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.73% year over year growth (2.77% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stock and bond prices were mixed as the S&P 500 (SPY) took a breather after a hot start to 2019. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 42.9% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (up from 39.0% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.10% percentage points to -0.68%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.28%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Charting Last Week (4/8/19 - 4/12/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.07% year over year growth (-1.81% QoQ) up from 1.93% last week. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.68% year over year growth (2.55% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks edged higher with the S&P 500 (SPY) finally breaking the all-time high set back in September last year. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 39.0% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (down from 54.5% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.08% percentage points to -0.58%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.34%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Friday, April 12, 2019

International Leading Indicators - April 2019

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.58% and is 0.21% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.34%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. 13 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices increased for 6 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, April 7, 2019

Charting Last Week (4/1/19 - 4/5/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 1.93% year over year growth (-1.87% QoQ) up from 1.88% last week. The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.57% year over year growth (2.70% QoQ). The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
Stocks had another good week with the S&P 500 (SPY) gaining 2.16%. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 54.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (down from 66.3% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.22% percentage points to -0.52%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.52%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Charting Last Week (3/25/19 - 3/29/19)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.17% year over year growth (-1.00% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is at 1.88% year over year growth (-2.06% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 (SPY) was up 13.53% in the first quarter, the best quarter since 2009. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 66.3% chance that the Fed will cut rates in 2019 (up from 57.5% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.01% percentage points to -0.72%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.52%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.