Sunday, August 26, 2018

Charting Last Week (8/20/18 - 8/24/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.32% year over year growth (1.95% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 2.34% year over year growth (0.76% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 (SPY) closed the week in record territory and is now 1.18% higher than the previous highs set in January. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 63.7% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 65.4% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.12% percentage points to 1.26%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.83%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 19, 2018

Charting Last Week (8/13/18 - 8/17/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.27% year over year growth (1.75% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 2.27% year over year growth (0.54% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
US stocks were up modestly for the week while International stock prices were down. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 65.4% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 62.2% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 1.38%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.92%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

Charting Last Week (8/6/18 - 8/10/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.29% year over year growth (1.81% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 2.26% year over year growth (0.57% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
US stocks were down marginally while International stocks took a bigger hit. The Turkey Lira dropped by 15% on Friday after the US doubled their tariffs on steel and aluminum imports after failing to reach an agreement regarding the release of American pastor Andrew Brunson. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 62.2% chance of two more rate hikes this year (down from 66.8% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 1.42%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased to 4.88%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

International Leading Indicators - August 2018

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.42% and is 0.12% percentage points lower than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.02%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 12 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had decreasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 12 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 5, 2018

Charting Last Week (7/30/18 - 8/3/18)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the second quarter is 2.29% year over year growth (1.82% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the third quarter is at 2.26% year over year growth (0.57% QoQ) down from 2.33% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.
The S&P 500 (SPY) rose for the third week in a row and is now 0.20% away from the all-time high set in January. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 68.5% chance of two more rate hikes this year (up from 67.7% last week) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.  
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 1.43%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.19%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.  
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past perforance is not an indication of future performance.