Sunday, May 31, 2015

Charting Last Week (5/26 - 5/29/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.22% percentage points to 4.80%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.26%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mostly up. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 57 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.43% (down from a 62 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.46%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. With 98% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.4% year over year. This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.20% percentage points to 2.33%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.79%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Charting Last Week (5/18- 5/22/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.81% percentage points to 4.58%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.26%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were mixed for the week while bond prices were down. The S&P 500 inched farther into record territory. With 97% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.4% year over year. This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 62 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.46% (up from a 50 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.39%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) was unchanged at 2.13%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.01%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Charting Last Week (5/11- 5/15/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.96% percentage points to 3.77%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.26%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were up for the week while bond prices were mixed. The S&P 500 closed the week at another record high. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 50 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.39% (down from a 53 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.41%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. With 93% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.5% year over year. This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.18% percentage points to 2.13%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.92%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

International Leading Indicators - May 2015

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.24% and is 0.10% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) has now risen for five months in a row after falling steadily for ten months. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.62%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 17 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had increasing Leading Indices. The Leading Indices decreased for 10 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Charting Last Week (5/4- 5/8/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.01% percentage points to 4.73%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.35%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were mostly up for the week rallying after the April Employment report showed the economy continued to grow but at a slow enough pace that investors believe won't encourage the Fed to raise rates soon. Bond prices were mostly down. The 10 Year Treasury rose to 2.15% up from 1.91% two weeks ago.

 The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 53 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.41% (down from a 65 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.48%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

 With 91% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 2.6% year over year. This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.31%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.76%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Charting Last Week (4/27- 5/1/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.05% percentage points to 4.74%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.43%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock and bond prices were down for the week. The 10 Year Treasury rose to 2.11% up from 1.91% last week. The Fed Funds futures are now implying a 65 percent chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.48% (up from a 56 percent chance last week and an implied rate of 0.43%) according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. With 76% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings for last quarter, operating full year earnings are on pace to be up 3.5% year over year. This is down from 12.0% year over year growth two quarters ago. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.08% percentage points to 2.31%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 3.76%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.