Charting Last Week (3/23/20 - 3/27/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 2.03% year over year growth (1.27% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.80% year over year growth (1.70% QoQ) up from 1.72% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

It was another volatile week as the the S&P 500 (SPY) rallied by 10.76% after declining 14.55% this week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.05% percentage points to -1.00%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.30%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/16/20 - 3/20/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 1.99% year over year growth (1.04% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.72% year over year growth (1.65% QoQ) up from 1.70% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

It was a very volatile week as the market tries to gauge the impact of the Coronavirus. The S&P 500 (SPY) declined 14.55% this week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.09% percentage points to -0.94%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.83%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/9/20 - 3/13/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 1.97% year over year growth (0.94% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.70% year over year growth (1.65% QoQ) unchanged from last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

Volatility ramped up this week with the S&P 500 (SPY) ending down 9.46% for the week. The Fed issued an emergency rate cut of 1.00% this week lowering the target rate to 0% to 0.25% after making an emergency cut of 0.50% last week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.06% percentage points to -0.96%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 4.79%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (3/2/20 - 3/6/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the first quarter is 1.97% year over year growth (0.95% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the second quarter is at 1.70% year over year growth (1.65% QoQ) up from 1.58% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

In a volatile week the S&P 500 (SPY) had huge ups and downs every day but ended the week up only 0.41%. This type of volatility is more common in bear markets than regular times. The Fed issued an emergency rate cut of 0.50% only to see the market price in a 81.9% chance of a 0.75% rate cut by March 18 according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.90%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.05%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Charting Last Week (2/24/20 - 2/28/20)

The North Star GDP Estimate for the fourth quarter is 2.08% year over year growth (1.11% QoQ). The North Star GDP Forecast for the first quarter of 2020 is at 1.83% year over year growth (1.13% QoQ) down from 1.83% last week. The GDP Forecast page on the tab above is updated periodically during the week.

The S&P 500 (SPY) had its worst week since 2008, down 11.16% for the week over Coronavirus concerns. Treasury prices were up for the week with the 10 year Treasury reaching an all-time low of 1.13%. The Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 0.50% rate cut in March, another 0.25% cut in April and a 59.5% chance of another 0.25% rate cut in July up from a 0.3% chance last week according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at -0.90%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) decreased by 0.04% percentage points to 5.05%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.