Sunday, August 24, 2014

Charting Last Week (8/18 - 8/22/14)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.45% percentage points to 7.38%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.95%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities continued their three week recovery. Bond prices were mostly down. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) declined slightly by 0.01% percentage points to 2.29% continuing its steady six month decline. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 4.29%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Charting Last Week (8/11 - 8/15/14)

The Daily Leading Index declined by 0.33% percentage points to 6.93%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.95%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities continued their two week recovery. Bond prices were also up across the board. The 10 year Treasury is at 2.34%, its lowest point in over a year. It began the year slightly over 3%. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell by 0.12% percentage points to 2.30% continuing its steady six month decline. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 4.17%. 18 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had declining Leading Indices. The Leading Indices declined for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

International Leading Indicators - 8/11/14

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) slipped to 2.32% and is 0.44% percentage points lower than last month continuing its steady six month slide. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 4.24%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. 18 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had declining Leading Indices. The Leading Indices declined for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Charting Last Week (8/4 - 8/8/14)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.45% percentage points to 7.26%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.90%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
U.S. equity prices were up for the week while international equity prices were down. The S&P 500 has recovered a little bit from being extremely oversold last week. Bond prices were up across the board. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell by 0.03% percentage points to 2.42%. There weren't any updates for the Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) which is at 4.06%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Charting Last Week (7/28 - 8/1/14)

The Daily Leading Index rose by 0.14% percentage points to 6.65%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.86%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equity and Bond prices were down for the week. On Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPY) was 3.47 standard deviations below its 21 day moving average. This is very a very extreme value. Assuming that stock prices are normally distributed, being that far below the moving average would happen once every 15 years. Since 1993, this has happened 4 times before including once in January of this year. Recent low volatility (narrow bands) is a big factor in this. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There weren't any updates for the Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) which is at 2.45%. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 4.06%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.