Sunday, August 17, 2014

Charting Last Week (8/11 - 8/15/14)

The Daily Leading Index declined by 0.33% percentage points to 6.93%. The Daily Coincident Index rose to 3.95%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equities continued their two week recovery. Bond prices were also up across the board. The 10 year Treasury is at 2.34%, its lowest point in over a year. It began the year slightly over 3%. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) fell by 0.12% percentage points to 2.30% continuing its steady six month decline. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 4.17%. 18 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had declining Leading Indices. The Leading Indices declined for 8 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
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These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.