Sunday, March 3, 2013

Charting Last Week (2/25 - 3/1/13)

The Daily Leading Index declined by 0.09% percentage points to 5.66%. The Daily Coincident Index fell sharply to 1.97%. The fall was mostly due to Personal Income dropping 3.6% in January after rising 2.6% in December due to the expiration of the payroll tax cut. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week. Equities were mixed for the week while bond prices were up for the week. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The Leading Index for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to .10% after a strong gain for the Euro Area. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 5.58% after Taiwan's Leading Index rose sharply. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
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Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.