Tuesday, May 14, 2013

International Leading Indicators - 5-14-13

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) rose to 1.59% and is 0.27% percentage points higher than last month. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 5.30%.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries today. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.
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Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.