Wednesday, May 14, 2014

International Leading Indicators - 5/13/14

The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) fell to 3.71% and is 0.52% percentage points lower than last month continuing its gradual three month slide. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) rose to 3.83% ending a three month decline.

 The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries yesterday. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. I created Leading Indicators for International Developed Markets (EFA) and International Emerging Markets (EEM) by weighting each country's growth rate by the market share of each country's stocks in the respective funds. On the last chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for various countries.

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Furthermore, these charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.