Sunday, September 14, 2014

Charting Last Week (9/8- 9/12/14)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.18% percentage points to 11.49%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 3.90%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Equity prices fell for the week led by International Emerging Markets (EEM) which declined 4.5% for the week. Bond prices were also down for the week. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
After last week all of the companies of the S&P 500 have reported Second Quarter earnings. As reported one year earnings for the S&P 500 are up 13.48% year over year. This week seven companies report earnings kicking off the Third Quarter earnings season.

The OECD released their Leading Indicators for most major countries on Monday. When available, I have averaged the indicators with the Conference Board's Leading indicators to create a composite for each country. 17 of the 20 countries in the Developed Markets had declining Leading Indices. The Leading Indices declined for 5 out of 15 countries in the Emerging Markets. The Leading Index for the International Developed Markets (EFA) declined by 0.52% percentage points to 1.59% continuing its steady seven month decline. The Leading Index for International Emerging Markets (EEM) declined to 4.26%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
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These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.