Sunday, August 16, 2015

Charting Last Week (8/10 - 8/14/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.05% percentage points to 4.79%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.97%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
With 93% of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, as reported full year earnings are down 4.32% compared to full year earnings last quarter. US stock prices were up for the week while International stock prices were down. China devalued their Yuan this week causing some volatility in the markets. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 72% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.50% (up from a 64% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.45%) according to data compiled from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.06% percentage points to 2.54%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) fell to 3.11%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.