Sunday, September 20, 2015

Charting Last Week (9/14 - 9/18/15)

The Daily Leading Index decreased by 0.51% percentage points to 1.81%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.67%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks prices were mixed for the week while bond prices were mostly up. All eyes were on the Fed which decided to keep rates the same. While 13 of the 17 members still think they will raise rates in 2015, 1 member is now predicting that they won't raise rates until 2017. Fed Funds futures are implying a 39% chance of a rate hike by December with an implied rate of 0.21% (down from a 61% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.29%) according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The most likely timing of the first rate hike has been pushed back to March 2016. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) increased by 0.03% percentage points to 2.57%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.53%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.