Sunday, November 8, 2015

Charting Last Week (11/2 - 11/6/15)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.73% percentage points to 1.83%. The Daily Coincident Index increased to 2.53%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks prices were mostly up while bond prices were mostly down for the week. The 10 Year Treasury rose from 2.14% last week to 2.33% this week as a rate hike looks more and more likely in December after a stronger than expected jobs report. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 70% chance of a rate hike by January 2016 with an implied rate of 0.22% (a change from a 47% chance last week and an implied rate of 0.19%) according to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. I have updated the charts to include all of the asset classes that I track. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 2.12%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 2.14%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.