Sunday, April 10, 2016

Charting Last Week (4/4 - 4/8/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.11% percentage points to 2.40%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 2.44%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stock prices were down for the week while bond prices were mostly up.  The Fed Funds futures are implying just one rate hike this year with a 59% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. This is a far cry from the Fed's assumption that they would be raising rates four times this year when they raised rates last December.  The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months.  The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) decreased by 0.14% percentage points to 0.25%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) increased to 2.64%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.
All information, data and analysis provided by this website is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.   Click here for more details.

These charts have limitations.  Economic data is often revised after the fact.  The market is forward looking and anticipates future events.  The unexpected can and will happen.  The market is continually changing.  The conditions of the past are different from the present.  Past performance is not an indication of future performance.