Sunday, November 6, 2016

Charting Last Week (10/31 - 11/4/16)

The Daily Leading Index increased by 0.07% percentage points to 1.41%. The Daily Coincident Index is at 1.55%. The Daily Leading Index page on the tab above is updated daily during the week.
Stocks were down for the week while bond prices were mostly up. The S&P 500 has declined 9 days in a row for the first time in almost 36 years. The Fed Funds futures are implying a 66.8% chance of a rate hike by December 2016 down from a 74.2% chance last week according CME Group's FedWatch tool. The charts below show the normal trading ranges for various indices for the last six months. The red (or green) area indicates 2-3 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range. The gray area indicates 1-2 standard deviations above (or below) the normal 21 day trading range.
  There were not any updates to the International Leading Indices during the week. The Leading Indicator for International Developed Markets (EFA) is at 0.30%. The Leading Indicator for International Emerging Markets (EEM) is at 5.00%. On the chart below, you can click on the blue and red buttons to see the Leading Indicator growth rate and an ETF for each country.    
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These charts have limitations. Economic data is often revised after the fact. The market is forward looking and anticipates future events. The unexpected can and will happen. The market is continually changing. The conditions of the past are different from the present. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.